ASUS ROG Northcon Preview!

ASUS ROG is almost upon us! This weekend, 16 top Starcraft 2 players will duke it out at Northcon, the largest LAN party in Germany, for $25,000 of prize money. Before diving into my predictions, there are a few notable factoids that should be mentioned:

This is the last chance for a foreigner to win a premier tournament in 2013. Enough said. This is it. 7 Koreans vs 9 Foreigners.With Scarlett and Vortix there, I think there's a legitimate chance of it happening, but it is still pretty unlikely.

Taeja is not going. Generally, there wouldn't be much of a point in mentioning somebody's absence, but given how unbelievably good Taeja is at the moment (clear number 1 in the world in my eyes for the time being), the chances for everyone there increase exponentially due to his absence.

StarDust and Jjakji will be there! OK sure, for most people that's probably not the hugest of deals, but given that these guys are my teammates and my buddies, for me it is!

One participant is still to be determined! There will be a BYOC qualifier to decide who the final player in Group A will be. To be honest, I don't really see many strong players making the trip all the way there for a BYOC qualifier with only 1 slot in the main event, so I assume that the winner of that will be a German player who doesn't have to travel too far. TLO perhaps? Would be cool!

The current Northcon defending champion is mYi.ABomB. Yes yes yes, I know, it wasn't a premier tournament last year and there were no big names in it BUT STILL! 

But now, without further ado, ONTO THE PREVIEW!

The Players:

Acer.Innovation: For months, Innovation was the undisputed number 1 in the world. While he's dropped off a bit in the past couple of months, he's still a formidable force to be reckoned with. He hasn't won a major title recently, but results like a top 4 finish at Dreamhack Winter, a 77% winrate in the ATC and an 86% winrate in the GSTL speak for themselves.

Picture by Kevin "Silverfire" Chang

ST.Life: He's back. Between October 2012 and March 2013, Life racked up 5 premier tournament titles. After being relatively silent for the next six months, hovering between Code A and Code S in the GSL, he showed a sign of life (no pun intended initially, i promise) by taking a top 4 finish at the incredibly stacked Dreamhack Bucharest. Life was able to finally prove he was back by taking his 6th premier tournament at IEM New York in October, and just last weekend he took 2nd place at Dreamhack Winter.

NrS.Welmu: It's hard to feel optimistic for Welmu coming into this tournament. The poor guy has had health issues that prevented him from attending Dreamhack Winter most recently, and one has to wonder how his form is looking. On top of that, he doesn't have a Protoss opponent to show off his legendary PvP. Life is hard for Welmu (horrible pun intended this time) this weekend, but I hope he can defy the odds and upset the Korean titans in his group!

EG.Jaedong: Jaedong wants this. Bad. His seemingly endless string of second place finishes this year gets more painful to look at every time he fails in a final. Something to consider, though, is that while this tournament is stacked, JD has made it through much harder tournament brackets already this year. If there ever was a tournament for him to finally reach out and grab that trophy, this is it.

mYi.StarDust: StarDust has not been playing the best Starcraft of his life lately. This summer was fantastic for StarDust, with a win at Dreamhack Summer, a top 4 finish at Dreamhack Valencia, and a top 8 finish at the last ASUS ROG in Finland. A top 12 finish at Dreamhack Bucharest was respectable also, but his last two tournaments have been fairly forgettable, with a Round of 16 elimination at Homestory Cup and a very disappointing first round elimination at Dreamhack Winter. StarDust is motivated to show a sign of life and show that he's still a contender at this tournament.

Acer.Nerchio: Similar to StarDust, Nerchio is another tournament winning caliber player, but one who has not been playing at his old level lately. He did have a top 8 finish at WCS Europe Season 3, but coming out of both of his groups in second and then falling 0-3 to MMA in the Round of 8 didn't make it the most glorious of runs, and with his most recent performance being a Round of 32 elimination at Homestory Cup, this tournament is going to be important for Nerchio if he wants to finish 2013 on a good note.

mouz.HasuObs: HasuObs had a pretty good summer this year as well, with a top 8 finish in WCS Europe Season 2 and a respectable Round of 16 finish at Homestory Cup VII, losing out to Hyun and Violet. Recently, however, he's looked less strong, with Round of 32 eliminations at both WCS Europe Season 3 and Homestory Cup VIII. He did do reasonably at WCG this past weekend though, taking a 2-0 win over Capoch as well as a 2-0 win over Taiwanese representative, Ian. I'm not entirely sure what to expect from the German, but hopefully with the home crowd on his side he can have a good showing.

yoeFW.San: San comes into this tournament off the back of a 2nd place finish at IEM Singapore, where he reaffirmed that he is the current king of the PvZ matchup. He's another one who has yet to taste victory in a premier tournament, though he has come close this year with two runner up finishes (the other being at the previous ASUS ROG this summer). With a bit of bracket luck, this could be his time to shine and finally grab that tournament win.

Picture by Kevin "Silverfire" Chang

Acer.MMA: MMA may not be the undisputed best player in the world like he was at the end of 2011 into 2012, but this year he's shown us that he's still capable of being a tournament winner, taking WCS Europe Season 3. This past weekend, MMA secured a top 6 finish at the incredibly stacked Dreamhack Winter, eventually falling to Taeja and wonderkid Patience. Looking at the lineup for this tournament, MMA has to be one of the favorites to go far.

mouz.Vortix: One half of the Spanish Armada, and in my opinion, one of the two (moderately) realistic foreigners to take this tournament. Vortix has a good year behind him, with a top 8 finish at WCS Europe Season 2 and a top 4 finish at Season 3. He notably also boasts a 68% winrate in the ATC where he all killed Quantic Gaming not one month ago. Vortix is a scary force to be reckoned with, and even if he isn't the favorite to make it out of Group C, the Koreans had better watch out.

aTn.Socke: Socke is the second German representative in ASUS ROG Northcon. Qualifying alongside HasuObs from the BCON Clash qualifiers, he's had to earn his spot here. He started the year with a phenomenal top 4 finish at IEM Katowice, but he seems to have had a bit of trouble transitioning to Heart of the Swarm, as he was eliminated from WCS Europe entirely in Season One, following which he suffered Round of 32 eliminations in both Homestory Cup VII and ASUS ROG Summer. After a 2 month break from events however, Socke showed us a sign of life at the most recent Homestory Cup, beating out MaNa and Zenio to advance to the Round of 16, where he would finish 3rd in his group, after Leenock and HyuN. Oh and don't worry guys, the Socke that went 0-14 at WCG wasn't this guy.

mYi.Jjakji: Jjakji was one of those forgotten GSL Champions for a pretty long time. After winning GSL November 2011, he did nothing for almost two years until he tore through WCS Korea Season 3 out of nowhere, finishing 6th place. After moving to Europe, his first result was 3rd place at Homestory Cup VIII, and since arriving he's maintaining a 90% winrate on the EU ladder after about 300 games between his accounts. Jjakji is ridiculously strong at the moment, and he can definitely take this tournament, though with people like Life and Jaedong around, I wouldn't make him the top favorite to win it all. Either way, keep an eye on him.

Picture by Kevin "Silverfire" Chang

Acer.Scarlett: Scarlett is objectively the best chance the foreigners have of winning this tournament. While she's consistently been one of the top foreigners for the past year or more, a premier tournament victory still eludes her (TIL WCS North America 2012 isn't categorized as a premier tournament). She has an impressive year behind her, with a Top 4 finish in WCS America Season 2, and a top 8 finish at the Season 2 finals. After a bit of a lacklustre phase with Round of 16 finishes in WCS America Season 3 and Homestory Cup VIII, Scarlett was back with a shout taking 3rd place at Red Bull Battlegrounds New York, and she promptly followed it up with a top 8 finish at IEM Singapore last weekend. If there was ever a time for her to become a tournament champion, this is it.

mouz.LucifroN: The other half of the Spanish Armada. Lucifron has always been pegged as one of the top foreign Terrans, but a huge success still eludes the Spaniard. He has a good year behind him nonetheless, with a 6th place finish in WCS Europe Season 1, and two Dreamhack Top 8 finishes at Summer and Valencia. Recently, though, his form has declined with a Round of 32 elimination in WCS EU Season 3, and an abysmal 0-8 mapscore at Dreamhack Winter. Lucifron needs a good showing to remind people why he's considered one of the top foreign Terrans, and he needs a good performance to ensure that his final memories of 2013 aren't first round eliminations.

ENCE.Elfi: Finally, we get to Elfi, our last player. Elfi is the most unpredictable character in the European scene. Sometimes he'll have incredible showings (Top 8 at Dreamhacks Bucharest and Valencia), and sometimes he just... won't (Round of 64 elimination at Dreamhack Stockholm, Round of 32 elimination at WCS EU Season 2). One thing has to be said for the guy: he's never a bore to watch. He's playing pretty well recently, with his last major tournament being Dreamhack Bucharest's top 8 finish, and more recently he's maintaining a 50% winrate in the ATC, where he recently took out Taeja, TLO and HerO back to back. As always, I'll be interested to see how the eternal dark horse does this weekend.

The Groups

Group A:

Welmu is our foreign hope for Group A. Unfortunately for him, I don't realistically see him getting out of this group. Due to health issues he hasn't been playing very much these past weeks, and the poor guy has to fight off Life and Innovation to advance. The silver lining is that Welmu will play the winner of the BYOC qualifier first, which will be an easier task than either of the other two. Life though, the kid is back. He nabbed his sixth premier title not so long ago at IEM New York, ending his dry spell, and came second at Dreamhack Winter just last week. With Innovation not being the unstoppable machine he was regarded to be earlier this year anymore, Life is my clear favorite to advance in first. Innovation is unquestionably the smart pick to advance with Life in second place.

Prediction:

Life > Innovation
Welmu > TBD (Hard to judge since we don't know who it will be yet)
Life > Welmu
Innovation > TBD (Less hard to judge, no matter who comes through BYOC)
Innovation > Welmu



Group B:

This is a tougher one to call. StarDust was not very happy about pulling Jaedong in the group stage, and heaven help us, he has to play him first. Despite a lacklustre Dreamhack Winter performance, I think Jaedong has to be the favorite to advance out of this group. Jaedong is, in my mind, the strongest Zerg player in the world at the moment. Soulkey is the only one who comes to mind as a competitor for that title, and I still pick Jaedong. StarDust has been in a slump for the past couple of events he's participated in, including a very poor performance in last weekend's Dreamhack Winter, but he should still favored against both Nerchio and HasuObs, though an upset there is absolutely possible. Nerchio has to be the favorite for the second match. While HasuObs is definitely capable of taking him out, Nerchio has proved a more solid player both historically and recently. Overall, though, my pick for this group has to be the two Koreans again.

Prediction:

Jaedong > StarDust
Nerchio > HasuObs
Jaedong > Nerchio
StarDust > HasuObs
StarDust > Nerchio



Group C:

It pains me to see one of the two realistic foreign hopes thrown into this group. Vortix definitely has what it takes to advance in a group with two Koreans, but San and MMA is just horrendous luck. San, king of PvZ at the moment, is undisputedly the best at that matchup in the present, and MMA is, well, MMA. I still think that Vortix has a shot to make it through, but it's a long one. As with the previous groups, the Koreans will face off against each other first, so Vortix, if he defeats Socke (which he should) will have two chances to take a best of 3 series against one or the other. Socke is one of the German representatives, so he'll have the crowd on his side, but honestly I don't see any way out of this group for him. I think MMA takes a comfortable first place, followed, most likely, by San.

Prediction:

MMA > San
Vortix > Socke
MMA > Vortix
San > Socke
San > Vortix



Group D:

Well, if the foreigners fail in the other groups, at least we're guaranteed one in the top 8 from Group D. This will be an interesting one. Lucifron is always considered a top foreigner, but after his abysmal performance at Dreamhack Winter, I don't honestly expect him to put up all too much resistance. Scarlett, on the other hand, has been in fantastic form recently, especially in ZvT, so having two Terrans definitely should make her happy. Jjakji should be the favorite to advance in first place, but I could definitely see Scarlett upsetting him, though he is very motivated to take this tournament home. Elfi is always a wild card. He could bomb out or he could work some of that Elfi magic we've all come to know and love. On paper, Jjakji and Scarlett should advance, but that eternal darkhorse Elfi might be able to remind us that he's still capable of taking out the best.

Prediction:

Jjakji > Scarlett
Elfi > Lucifron
Jjakji > Elfi
Scarlett > Lucifron
Scarlett > Elfi



In Summary:

This should be another awesome tournament. Looking beyond the group stages, I think the favorites to take this tournament have to be Life, Jaedong and MMA, with Jjakji definitely capable of posing a threat. Scarlett has the best chance of the foreigners, though I wouldn't hold your breath if I were you. Jaedong could also finally nab a tournament win here too. It's stacked, but not as stacked as others where he's failed. If I had to put my money on somebody though, it would be Life. Unfortunately, if my predictions come true, StarDust and Jjakji will end up in a team kill situation in the Ro8, which would be very sad,but we'll see what happens. I won't be attending this event, so I'll be camped out on the couch with the other guys at the house, but I'll definitely be cheering my heart out for Jjakji and StarDust!